For Michael Saylor, “if it’s not Bitcoin, it will go to zero”, but it makes sense

Former MicroStrategy CEO, and bitcoin maximalist, Michael Saylor wrote on Twitter that he believes if something isn’t bitcoin in the long run, it will go to zero.

This overly maximalist stance seems far-fetched, even to someone like…Saylor, but it makes sense.

In fact, Bitcoin has been around for 13 years now, and right now, very few people think it will lose all of its value in the short to medium term. The situation changes in the long term, but if it were to maintain a value throughout this cycle and the next, i.e. until 2030, it would become very unlikely that it could fall to zero at very long term, unless there are major technical problems.

So it’s not a question of what the value of BTC will be in the months or years to come, but in the decades to come. Or rather, to be more precise, it is about whether, from the next decade, the price of Bitcoin could at some point fall to zero, in case it does not sooner.

According to Saylor, this will not happen, neither in the short term, nor in the medium term, nor in the long term, nor in the very long term. In the short term, almost everyone agrees that BTC will not go to zero, while in the medium term there are a few skeptics. In the long and very long term, skeptics are growing, but if it doesn’t go to zero by the end of the next cycle… (2028 or so) it would become very unlikely to happen in the very long term.

However, this reasoning does not apply to stocks or even bonds. Indeed, the latter always have a deadline that almost never extends over the very long term.

Stocks over the very long term often end up exiting the markets or even disappearing due to bankruptcies, closures, takeovers or other events that cause the issuing companies to go out of business.

When it comes to fiat currencies, there are very few that stand the test of time. Currently, among the oldest are the British pound and the US dollar, but although these currencies date back centuries, they have been fiat for less than a century.

According to some estimates, the average lifespan in the fiat currency markets is only 27 years. Over the decades, these currencies also seem destined to disappear.

Therefore, Michael Saylor’s reasoning makes sense, as very long-term financial assets tend to lose value or disappear. On the other hand, Bitcoin if it manages to hold out until 2030 could also be destined to never disappear, provided that major technical problems that compromise its functioning are avoided in the future.

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