JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon shared his predictions for the US economy, including the possibility of “something worse” than a recession. “There are storm clouds“, said the leader, citing interest rates, QT, oil, Ukraine, war and China.
Economic forecast from JPMorgan chief Jamie Dimon
While noting that the U.S. economy is strong, with consumer and business balance sheets in good shape, the leader stressed that “you have to think differently” when making predictions. The JPMorgan chief described: “What’s outside? There are storm clouds. Rates, QT, Oil, Ukraine, War, China.”
Jamie Dimon shared: “If I had to put probabilities: soft landing 10%. Harder landing, mild recession, 20%, 30%.” He added :
Harder recession, 20%, 30%. And maybe something 20 or 30% worse.
“It’s a bad mistake to say ‘here’s my one-point forecast’“, he clarified.
His predictions echo what he said in June when he warned that an economic hurricane “was heading towards us“. He advised investors to be prepared.
Although Jamie Dimon is considering the possibility of something worse than a recession, he pointed out during a recent visit to JPMorgan Chase’s bank branch in Olneyville: “Whatever the future holds, JPMorgan is ready.”
Various analysts have predicted that the global economy could experience a recession this year. Bank of America’s U.S. economics chief Michael Gapen told Fox Business on Monday there was a good chance of a mild recession this year. He expects the Federal Reserve to inadvertently trigger a downturn with its war on inflation. “This cycle probably ends in a slight recession… How can I get to this? It’s basically the story. It’s really hard to achieve a soft landing“, opined the analyst.
David Mericle, an economist at Goldman Sachs, detailed in a client note: “Our overall conclusion is that there is a doable but difficult path to a soft landing, although several factors beyond the Fed’s control can facilitate or complicate this path and increase or decrease the chances of success.”